I've read a few mainstream media items coming out of Australia this morning that are SO misleading, untrue and stand to create fear that is unwarranted. (As do some social media posts)
THE FACTS...
° The ONLY people that need fear of Agung are those WITHIN the 4klm exclusion zone. THAT'S IT. Everyone else is 💯% fine, so just sit back, enjoy mother nature.
°The warning level remains at 3 of a possible 4... IF something was afoot that required the level to be raised it would be... THERE IS NOTHING HAPPENING TO WARRANT A RAISE. Therefore there is NOTHING to worry about. I trust the Government in its assessments totally.
° Since Agung awoke in September 2017, some 580+ days have past. The airport has been affected for LESS than 4 of those days (0.68%). That means 99.3% of the days have been FACTUALLY worry free. Millions of people have come, enjoyed Bali's wonders and returned home safely.
° Ash falls.... I'm sure everyone has seen photos of historical eruption events around the world, houses, streets, cars, people covered by many inches or even feet in ash. This hasn't happened with Agung.....NOT once since September 2017 has ANY Agung eruption created any fallout that would be deemed health or life threatening OUTSIDE the exclusion zone.
Tens of thousands of dollars have been spent by people buying masks and NEVER used.
° The ONLY people affected FACTUALLY by Agung are those that live or make their living WITHIN the 4klm zone. The impact on their lives is immense. EVERYONE else should get on with their holidays as Agung has mathematically less than 1% chance of affecting anyone else. Don't dramatise things that aren't reality. Enjoy life.
° Predictions..... Yes, every now and then I will say ' Get your camera's ready. This is when, from what I read into available data, there is good probability of eruption. Generally I give a +/- 48 hour window and hit the mark. I have been out as far as 3 extra days which happened last month. Nobody can predict with 💯 percent certainty. Not possible. Short term and more so long term predictions are at the mercy of mother nature who continually changes her mind and walks off in a different direction. I do my best to inform you all of possibilities... don't shoot the messenger 😉
° Summary....
Agung is a volcano.
Volcanoes erupt.
Eruptions are events of awe.
Be EXCITED about the prospect of being lucky enough to witness what most of humanity will never see.
Agung is not to be feared. It is to be respected and those that venture within 4klms knowingly may soon feel Agungs wrath. I hope the government outlaws entering the zone soon. I pray deaths are not the catalyst for such measures.
EVERYONE else, get away from focusing on what Agung is doing (or not doing) and start living a stress-free holiday .... FREE YOUR MIND OF THE 'WHAT IF'S'.
By Peter Rendezvous
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